We said: Reading 1-2 Cardiff City
Back on home territory, Reading will be confident of getting back on track against opponents who may have over-performed last weekend. Nevertheless, Cardiff's belief will be higher, and we can see the visitors departing Berkshire with another three points to their name.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 48.91%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Reading had a probability of 24.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.56%) and 1-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Reading win it was 1-0 (8.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.