Despite their struggles this season, Gremio still possess plenty of quality in their ranks and should be good enough to beat second-tier opposition this weekend.
Operario Ferroviario will look to stay in the contest as long as possible, but we feel that they will come up fractionally short on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 53.84%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Operario Ferroviario had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Operario Ferroviario win it was 0-1 (7.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
-2.01) 
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