Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.