Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 65.22%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 13.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.62%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.