Whilst Roma's recent record in the competition leaves a lot to be desired, as does their form in all competitions of late, we are backing them to scrape past a Lecce side who will be well up for the game and will certainly make them work hard to progress.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
