Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 46.73%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Red Star had a probability of 26.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.16%) and 1-2 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.72%), while for a Red Star win it was 1-0 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.