Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 50.03%. A win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Forest Green Rovers win was 0-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.