While Hednesford have acquired players who have National League experience, this is a major step-up against a team on the up in Gateshead. With the Pitmen having struggled in the final third of late, we expect Gateshead to record a routine win to book their place in the first round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 80.26%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for Hednesford Town had a probability of 6.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.94%) and 0-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.05%), while for a Hednesford Town win it was 1-0 (2.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
-0.24) 
0.56) 
