Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 1-0 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
