SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 43.31%. A win for Curacao had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.75%) and 2-0 (5.87%). The likeliest Curacao win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Indonesia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Indonesia | Draw | Curacao |
43.31% ( -0.11) | 23.08% ( 0.06) | 33.61% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 64.21% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63% ( -0.3) | 36.99% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.82% ( -0.32) | 59.18% ( 0.32) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.42% ( -0.16) | 17.58% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.86% ( -0.28) | 48.14% ( 0.29) |
| Curacao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.9% ( -0.11) | 22.1% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.54% ( -0.17) | 55.46% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Indonesia | Draw | Curacao |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.4% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.01% Total : 43.31% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.07% | 1-2 @ 7.7% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.86% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.87% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.43% Total : 33.61% |
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