Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 92.23%. A draw had a probability of 6.4% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 3-0 with a probability of 17.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.58%) and 4-0 (13.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (3.32%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.