SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 68.87%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Palestino had a probability of 14.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 3-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.09%), while for a Palestino win it was 1-2 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolivar | Draw | Palestino |
68.87% ( 0.15) | 16.71% ( -0.02) | 14.42% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 62.51% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.77% ( -0.18) | 28.23% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.97% ( -0.23) | 49.03% ( 0.23) |
| Bolivar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.51% ( -0.02) | 7.49% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.11% ( -0.04) | 26.89% ( 0.05) |
| Palestino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.57% ( -0.28) | 32.42% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.06% ( -0.32) | 68.94% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolivar | Draw | Palestino |
| 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.06)1-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 5.14% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.37% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.15% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.39% Total : 68.87% | 1-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.35% Total : 16.71% | 1-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.72% Total : 14.42% |
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