Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Riestra win with a probability of 40.26%. A draw had a probability of 32.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 27.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Riestra win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.58%) and 2-1 (6.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.27%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Riestra would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
