SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 36.3%. A win for Belgrano had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.18%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Belgrano win was 0-1 (12.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Belgrano |
36.3% ( -0.66) | 30.18% ( 0.13) | 33.52% ( 0.53) |
| Both teams to score 41.61% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.29% ( -0.37) | 65.71% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.62% ( -0.25) | 84.38% ( 0.25) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.46% ( -0.63) | 34.54% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.74% ( -0.67) | 71.26% ( 0.67) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.55% ( 0.18) | 36.45% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.77% ( 0.18) | 73.23% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Belgrano |
| 1-0 @ 13.38% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.27% Total : 36.29% | 1-1 @ 13.5% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.46% Total : 30.17% | 0-1 @ 12.7% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 6.82% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 33.52% |
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