Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lleida win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Barakaldo had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lleida win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Barakaldo win was 0-1 (10.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
