Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.