Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 49.11%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 27.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.