Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 53.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 22.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Wales in this match.

Result
Wales	Draw	Bulgaria
53.06%	24.64%	22.29%

Both teams to score 49.94%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.28%

51.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.5%

73.49%

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.55%

19.45%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.7%

51.29%

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.99%

38%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.23%

74.77%

Score Analysis

Wales 53.06%

Bulgaria 22.3%

Draw 24.63%

Wales	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 12.1% 2-0 @ 9.91% 2-1 @ 9.59% 3-0 @ 5.41% 3-1 @ 5.23% 3-2 @ 2.53% 4-0 @ 2.21% 4-1 @ 2.14% 4-2 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.9% Total : 53.06%	1-1 @ 11.7% 0-0 @ 7.39% 2-2 @ 4.64% Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.63%	0-1 @ 7.15% 1-2 @ 5.66% 0-2 @ 3.46% 1-3 @ 1.83% 2-3 @ 1.5% 0-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.58% Total : 22.3%