Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 53.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 22.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Wales in this match.
