Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSM Iasi win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Universitatea Craiova had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSM Iasi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Universitatea Craiova win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-0.17) 
0.01) 
