Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 65.96%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 15.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.56%) and 1-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-2 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
