Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 34.16%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 32.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.8%) and 1-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 1-0 (14.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (15.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.