Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Girona had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (11.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaga would win this match.