Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 37.07%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Venezia win was 1-0 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.