Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Umraniyespor win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Istanbulspor had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Umraniyespor win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Istanbulspor win was 2-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-0.44) 
0.08) 
