Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for St Gallen had a probability of 35.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.83%) and 0-2 (5.62%). The likeliest St Gallen win was 2-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.