Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Felgueiras 1932 had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Felgueiras 1932 win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.03) 
