SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
39.33% ( -0.3) | 27.61% ( 0.33) | 33.06% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 48.65% ( -0.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.95% ( -1.23) | 57.04% ( 1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.07% ( -0.99) | 77.93% ( 0.99) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.73% ( -0.75) | 28.27% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.01% ( -0.96) | 63.99% ( 0.96) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.82% ( -0.64) | 32.18% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.34% ( -0.74) | 68.66% ( 0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.42)2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.74% Total : 33.05% |
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