Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 65.87%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Vila Real had a probability of 12.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.73%) and 1-2 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Vila Real win it was 1-0 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.14) 
