Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tonga win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Cook Islands had a probability of 32.51% and a draw had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tonga win was 1-2 with a probability of 6.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-3 (5.78%) and 1-3 (5.63%). The likeliest Cook Islands win was 2-1 (5.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tonga would win this match.
-1.71) 
2.26) 
