Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tahiti win with a probability of 84.81%. A draw had a probability of 9.8% and a win for Cook Islands had a probability of 5.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tahiti win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.11%) and 4-0 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.34%), while for a Cook Islands win it was 1-2 (1.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Tahiti in this match.
