Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 44.2%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
