Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cook Islands win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 37.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cook Islands win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.16%) and 2-3 (4.79%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.95%).
