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Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Rafael Nadal - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Rafael Nadal - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Swedish Open second-round match between Cameron Norrie and Rafael Nadal, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

A tantalising heavyweight meeting headlines Thursday's second-round matches at the Swedish Open in Bastad, as Cameron Norrie and Rafael Nadal cross paths for the right to advance to the quarter-finals.

The 22-time Grand Slam winner defeated Leo Borg - son of the legendary Bjorn Borg - in his first singles match for a couple of months, while Norrie got the job done against Jozef Kovalik in round one.


Match preview

While the Spanish prince in Carlos Alcaraz successfully retained his Wimbledon title on the SW19 lawns earlier this month, the Spanish king in Nadal opted not to join Andy Murray in enjoying a fond farewell, having taken the difficult decision to skip the grass-court season entirely.

The 38-year-old made the call in the wake of a first-round French Open exit to eventual finalist Alexander Zverev, a defeat that is expected to bring the curtain down on his illustrious Roland-Garros career, but Nadal's love for the clay still burns as bright as ever.

After teaming up with Casper Ruud to reach the second round of the men's doubles on Monday, Nadal pitted his wits against Borg junior on Tuesday and faced few roadblocks en route to a 6-3 6-4 victory, taking one hour and 25 minutes to seal the deal.

Winning an ATP Tour singles match for just the eighth time in the 2024 season, Nadal did not face a single break point against his Scandinavian foe, while converting two of the four that he fashioned and also firing five aces, contributing to an 82% first-serve win rate.

Twenty-four winners also left the Spaniard's racquet in unfavourable conditions, and even though some mistakes crept into his game early on - forgivable for a man who had not earned a singles victory since the start of May, and emulating his run to Swedish Open glory in 2005 remains a real possibility.

Doubles partner Ruud and reigning champion Andrey Rublev may be standing in Nadal's way of Bastad stardom further down the line, but fifth seed Norrie - especially one with quite a point to prove - still represents a significant obstacle for the 38-year-old to overcome.

Failing to kick on since making the last four at Wimbledon in 2022, Norrie lost his status as British number one to the fledgling Jack Draper during the grass-court season, although he avenged that dethroning by sinking his compatriot at SW19 before also being eliminated by Zverev.

In his first match since another mediocre Grand Slam run, Norrie was not troubled whatsoever behind his own serve against world number 102 Kovalik and got the job done in one hour and 35 minutes, although he missed his first five break points before taking his sixth on match point.

The world number 42 credited his "unbelievable" serving in the first set tie-breaker for his critical early advantage, as he marched to his eighth clay-court success of the campaign, and both of Norrie's last two appearances at top-level finals have come on the dirt.

However, not since the 2023 Barcelona Open - where he stunned Alcaraz in the championship match - has Norrie made it to an ATP Tour showpiece event, and either Mariano Navone or Sumit Nagal will be ready and waiting in the quarter-finals if he can sink one of the all-time greats.


Tournament so far

Cameron Norrie:

First round: vs. Jozef Kovalik 7-6[4] 6-4

Rafael Nadal:

First round: vs. Leo Borg 6-3 6-4


Head To Head

United Cup (2023) - Round Robin: Norrie wins 3-6 6-3 6-4
Mexican Open (2022) - Final: Nadal wins 6-4 6-4
French Open (2021) - Third Round: Nadal wins 6-3 6-3 6-3
Barcelona Open (2021) - Quarter-Final: Nadal wins 6-1 6-4
Australian Open (2021) - Third round: Nadal wins 7-5 6-2 7-5

Not until 2021 did Norrie and Nadal finally clash at the top level, but even in his twilight years, the latter has still built up a streak of head-to-head dominance over the former British number one with four wins from five battles.

Both of their meetings on clay - at the French and Barcelona Opens three years ago - went the way of the 22-time major winner, as did the final of the Mexican Open in 2022, Nadal's most recent hard-court crown.

However, Norrie came from a set down to beat Nadal for the first time at last year's United Cup, and the pair were on course to meet in this year's doubles in Bastad, but Norrie and Navone lost to Roman Safiullin and Theo Arribage on Tuesday to eliminate that possibility.


We say: Norrie to win in three sets

Once Nadal dusted off the cobwebs in his opener against Borg, the 38-year-old faced few difficulties on serve against his youthful foe, although it might be a different story against Norrie, who is capable of shocking the big guns on clay.

As the Briton's form has been average at best this season, we would not put it past Nadal to notch one set, but should the tie go the distance and fitness levels take precedence, Norrie - who also served brilliantly versus Kovalik - should send the legend packing.

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