Jannik Sinner squares off against Daniil Medvedev on Thursday evening having already moved to the brink of qualifying for the last four of the ATP World Tour Finals.
Although Medvedev begins the final Ilie Nastase Group game in second place, the Russian has work to do in order to reach the semi-finals.
Match preview
Having chosen to sit out the Paris Masters, Sinner is refreshed for this tournament and the extra rest period is seemingly paying off.
Losing just 15 games during straight-sets wins over Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz has effectively ensured that the world number one will be participating in the semi-finals regardless of how he fares here.
Sinner made relatively light work of Fritz when they met on Tuesday, a break of serve in each set proving to be the difference.
The most ominous statistic is that he has faced just two break points, one in each match, and it will take a monumental effort to prevent the Italian from winning this competition for the first time.
However, having been taken to three sets by Medvedev in last year's semi-finals, Sinner is aware that winning this contest is not a foregone conclusion.
For all the criticism that Medvedev justifiably received for his behaviour during the defeat to Fritz earlier in this tournament, he equally deserves credit for how he dispatched of De Minaur in his next match.
Just nine points were conceded behind his serve, his Australian foe failing to create a single break point, and it sets up what could be a titanic tussle on Thursday.
As it stands, it remains to be seen whether playing second will work in Medvedev's favour. If Fritz can defeat De Minaur in straight sets earlier in the day, Medvedev will have to match that effort against Sinner.
When his only success over him in eight outings came on the grass at Wimbledon, it emphasises his underdog status ahead of this contest and with regards to his hopes of progression.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
Round-robin: vs. De Minaur 6-3 6-4
Round-robin: vs. Fritz 6-4 6-4
Daniil Medvedev:
Round-robin: vs. Medvedev 6-4 6-3
Round-robin: vs. De Minaur 6-2 6-4
Head To Head
Marseille (2020) - Round of 16: Medvedev 1-6 6-1 6-2
Marseille (2021) - Quarter-final: Medvedev 6-2 6-4
ATP Finals (2021) - Round Robin: Medvedev 6-0 6-7(5) 7-6(8)
Vienna (2022) - Quarter-final: Medvedev 6-4 6-2
Rotterdam (2023) - Final: Medvedev 5-7 6-2 6-2
Miami Masters (2023) - Final: Medvedev 7-5 6-3
Beijing (2023) - Final: Sinner 7-6(2) 7-6(2)
Vienna (2023) - Final: Sinner 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3
ATP Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-3 6-7(4) 6-1
Australian Open (2024) - Final: Sinner 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3
Miami Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-1 6-2
Wimbledon (2024) - Quarter-final: Medvedev 6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3
US Open (2024) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-2 1-6 6-1 6-4
Shanghai Masters (2024) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-1 6-4
Although this head-to-head is level at seven wins apiece, the statistic does not fully capture the Italian's remarkable recovery.
After losing his first six meetings against his Russian opponent on Tour, Sinner notched five consecutive victories before the 2021 US Open champion snapped that streak at Wimbledon.
Medvedev's 2024 defeats to Sinner have been harrowing: the No. 5 seed lost the Australian Open final despite holding a two-set lead; additionally, their Miami Masters 1000 match-up was dominated by the Italian after the Russian's unconventional attacking tactics backfired.
Having snapped that losing streak by defeating an ailing Sinner in their first-ever meeting on grass, Medvedev has since suffered two defeats in a row at the US Open and the Shanghai Masters.
When they met in the semi-finals of this tournament 12 months ago, Sinner came through in three sets having lost a second-set tie-break
We say: Sinner to win in straight sets
While Medvedev deserves praise for how he bounced back against De Minaur on Tuesday, this will be a different test altogether. There is an air of confidence about Sinner, leading us to predict another ruthlessly-professional performance and win for the Italian.
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