SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
40.74% ( -0.71) | 25.51% ( -0.07) | 33.74% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 55.49% ( 0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.61% ( 0.48) | 48.39% ( -0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.47% ( 0.43) | 70.53% ( -0.43) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.46% ( -0.14) | 23.54% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.41% ( -0.21) | 57.59% ( 0.21) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.57% ( 0.72) | 27.43% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.09% ( 0.92) | 62.91% ( -0.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.03% Total : 40.74% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.51% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.95% Total : 33.74% |
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