SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
32.49% ( -0.25) | 24.87% ( -0.37) | 42.64% ( 0.63) |
| Both teams to score 57.3% ( 1.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.14% ( 1.58) | 45.86% ( -1.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.83% ( 1.49) | 68.17% ( -1.48) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.02% ( 0.61) | 26.98% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.68% ( 0.79) | 62.33% ( -0.78) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( 0.98) | 21.53% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.41% ( 1.48) | 54.59% ( -1.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.38)2-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.07% Total : 32.49% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.4)3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.86% | 1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.16)1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.12)0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.64% |
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