Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 46.96%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 29.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 2-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
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