SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 1-0 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Sao Paulo |
34.17% ( 0.15) | 26.42% ( 0.01) | 39.41% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 52.56% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.81% ( -0.02) | 52.19% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.1% ( -0.02) | 73.9% ( 0.02) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.98% ( 0.09) | 29.02% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.08% ( 0.11) | 64.92% ( -0.11) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.05% ( -0.1) | 25.95% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.04% ( -0.13) | 60.96% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| America Mineiro | Draw | Sao Paulo |
| 1-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.21% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 34.17% | 1-1 @ 12.56% 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.42% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.48% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 39.4% |
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