Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
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