Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 36.34%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 1-0 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
0.38) 
-0.52) 
