Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 50.8%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 24.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
-0.51) 
0.44) 
