Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 66.16%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 13.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.03%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.29) 
