Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 50.93%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 25.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Brentford
25.06%	24.01%	50.93%

Both teams to score 55.02%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.48%

46.52%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.2%

68.79%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.34%

32.66%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.79%

69.2%

Brentford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.71%

18.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.64%

49.36%

Score Analysis

Derby County 25.06%

Brentford 50.92%

Draw 24.01%

Derby County	Draw	Brentford
1-0 @ 6.68% 2-1 @ 6.35% 2-0 @ 3.74% 3-1 @ 2.37% 3-2 @ 2.01% 3-0 @ 1.4% Other @ 2.5% Total : 25.06%	1-1 @ 11.35% 0-0 @ 5.97% 2-2 @ 5.4% 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.01%	0-1 @ 10.14% 1-2 @ 9.65% 0-2 @ 8.62% 1-3 @ 5.46% 0-3 @ 4.88% 2-3 @ 3.06% 1-4 @ 2.32% 0-4 @ 2.07% 2-4 @ 1.3% Other @ 3.42% Total : 50.92%