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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Millwall | Draw | Derby County |
| 41.97% | 26.19% | 31.84% |
| Both teams to score 52.65% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
