Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 20.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.91%) and 1-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Leeds United
20.83%	23.22%	55.95%

Both teams to score 52.32%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.44%

47.56%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.23%

69.77%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.9%

37.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.12%

73.88%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.18%

16.82%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.2%

46.8%

Score Analysis

Derby County 20.83%

Leeds United 55.95%

Draw 23.22%

Derby County	Draw	Leeds United
1-0 @ 6.19% 2-1 @ 5.47% 2-0 @ 3.07% 3-1 @ 1.81% 3-2 @ 1.61% 3-0 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.68% Total : 20.83%	1-1 @ 11.03% 0-0 @ 6.24% 2-2 @ 4.88% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.22%	0-1 @ 11.12% 0-2 @ 9.91% 1-2 @ 9.83% 0-3 @ 5.89% 1-3 @ 5.84% 2-3 @ 2.9% 0-4 @ 2.63% 1-4 @ 2.6% 2-4 @ 1.29% 0-5 @ 0.94% 1-5 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.07% Total : 55.95%