SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.98%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Swansea City |
44.28% ( 0.28) | 23.12% ( 0.15) | 32.6% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 63.64% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.42% ( -0.93) | 37.58% ( 0.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.19% ( -1) | 59.81% ( 1) |
| Ipswich Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.58% ( -0.26) | 17.42% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.13% ( -0.46) | 47.87% ( 0.46) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( -0.68) | 22.94% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.29% ( -1.01) | 56.71% ( 1.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Swansea City |
| 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.05% Total : 44.28% | 1-1 @ 10.28% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 4% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.12% | 1-2 @ 7.57% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.16% Total : 32.6% |
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