Millwall were able to keep their first clean sheet in six matches last time out, but the Lions failed to consistently threaten a Stoke side who have been in a real rut of late.
QPR were impressive in stages of their contest with Southampton despite defeat, so we reckon that the R's will produce a plucky away performance to earn maximum points at The Den on Boxing Day.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 44.21%. A win for Queens Park Rangers had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.55%). The likeliest Queens Park Rangers win was 0-1 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Millwall would win this match.
-0.08) 
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