Both sides will be motivated to collect maximum points to boost their promotion hopes, and although Southampton will be regarded as slight favourites, Middlesbrough cannot be taken lightly considering their away form and victory over the Saints in the reverse fixture.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two sides have seen both teams score, with Southampton netting in all eight of those matches, and we can see the Saints just edging this closely-fought contest on Good Friday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 55.31%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.55%) and 1-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
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