A low-scoring closely-fought contest is to be expected on Thursday, considering that no more than two goals have found the net in any of the last six meetings.
Valencia have struggled against top-flight teams in recent months and they may find it challenging to grind out a result here, with Bilbao potentially scraping through with a slender victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
0.37) 
-0.38) 
