In a game that could well be relatively cagey and go the distance, Lazio's recent form and results against Roma could give them the edge.
However, form often goes out the window in huge derbies like this, and Mourinho will be looking for a big performance to overturn their recent poor run, but they will be the slight underdogs.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.04%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Roma had a probability of 28.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 2-1 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.
0.12) 
-0.17) 
